The Sacramento Bee: Close November California Elections Will Determine House Majority

November rating: Likely Republican

Analysts believe freshman Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Roseville, will likely keep his seat — but it is still on their radars. The district stretches from the northern Sierra Nevada along the Nevada border into Death Valley.

Kiley and Democrat Jessica Morse, a wildfire resiliency specialist, will advance from the primary, the AP projected. With 81% of the votes counted, Kiley had 54.9% and Morse had 43%. A no-party preference candidate had the remaining votes. Kiley, a freshman, won over Dr. Kermit Jones, a Democrat, by more than 7 percentage points in November 2022. “Kevin Kiley won by a healthy margin last time, but this is a district that is steadily trending towards Democrats that do have more arrivals to the Tahoe area, but also the Sacramento suburbs,” Wasserman said. “By the end of the decade, I would bet that this district is very competitive.” “Today, still slightly Republican leaning, and so it’s on our watch list and likely Republican,” he said. “But Democrats do have a fairly strong candidate here.”

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